Ayano Shimizu vs Eva Guerrero Alvarez Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Alvarez has demonstrated strength in second serve performance, winning 40.15% of points, compared to Shimizu's 35.25%. Is there a correlation between second serve performance and match success? Generally, yes.
• Shimizu shows superiority in second serve return, with a 53.01% success rate, slightly ahead of Alvarez's 48.76%. Does this suggest Shimizu has an edge in exploiting opponents' second serves? Potentially.
• First serve return effectiveness is very close, with Alvarez at 33.83% and Shimizu at 33.98%. This reflects an equal ability to handle strong serves.
• Under pressure, Alvarez excels at saving breakpoints, achieving a 50.93% success rate, compared to Shimizu's 41.32%, indicating better resilience in crucial moments.
• Over the past year, Alvarez has a slightly higher match win rate at 68.52% compared to Shimizu's 63.49%, suggesting consistent performance.
• Hard courts favor Alvarez, with a 69% win record, while Shimizu has a better performance on grass, with a 62% win rate. Does surface play a pivotal role in outcomes? It can be significant.
• Both players have competed extensively in Challengers/ITF tournaments, with similar win percentages, Alvarez at 60% and Shimizu at 60.71%.
• Opponent quality is nearly identical, with Alvarez's opponents having an average rank of 411.19 and Shimizu's at 412.27.
• In deciding sets, Shimizu outperforms with a 67% win rate compared to Alvarez's 57%, showing stronger end-game fortitude.
• Alvarez converts breakpoints slightly more efficiently at 46.67% versus Shimizu's 43.52%, hinting at superior tactical execution during crucial moments.

Editorial Prediction (August 7, 2025, UTC):

Alvarez's superior second serve performance and breakpoint saving ability indicate a strong likelihood of maintaining service games effectively. This strength, combined with a better overall match-winning percentage, tips the baseline performance largely in his favor.

While Shimizu excels in returning second serves and has a strong win rate in deciding sets, these strengths may not sufficiently compensate against Alvarez's overall steadiness and tactical acumen.

The match surface should be considered, and since it's likely not on grass, Alvarez's edge on hard courts provides additional confidence in his capabilities.

Based on the comprehensive analysis of strengths and recent performance, Alvarez is predicted to have a slight edge and is favored to win this upcoming match.